Crowd Consensus
19–35%
Markets aggregate broad public opinion and sharp positioning simultaneously.
Analytics
Market Comparison
Market comparison at KittySports is observational analytics — evaluating proprietary projections against publicly available market-implied probability lines to surface meaningful divergence.
Concept
Implied Probability
Public market prices embed a probability estimate for each outcome — this is the implied probability. KittySports treats this as an external data signal, not a source of truth, and compares it against proprietary projection outputs to identify divergence.
Market-implied probabilities can reflect crowd consensus, sharp capital, public bias, and recency weighting — all of which may diverge from independent model outputs based on the same underlying data.
Recency Bias
High
Public markets frequently overweight recent form relative to longer-term baselines.
Model Delta Signal
±2–4%
Meaningful divergence thresholds vary by confidence score and event type.
Markets Feed
Market Pricing
Implied probability, cross-source consensus, and best available price per outcome — rendered directly from the published Markets platform feed. No values are computed on this page.
market: race_winnerliquidity: 25.0overround: 13.0%dispersion: 0.0000
| Driver | Implied Prob. | Consensus | Best Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 6.2% | 7.0% | 14.29 | kalshi |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
| George Russell | 19.5% | 22.0% | 4.55 | kalshi |
| Oscar Piastri | 2.6% | 3.0% | 33.33 | kalshi |
| Sergio Perez | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
| Esteban Ocon | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
| Lando Norris | 2.6% | 3.0% | 33.33 | kalshi |
| Charles Leclerc | 10.6% | 12.0% | 8.33 | kalshi |
| Lewis Hamilton | 16.8% | 19.0% | 5.26 | kalshi |
| Isack Hadjar | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
| Valtteri Bottas | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 35.4% | 40.0% | 2.50 | kalshi |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
| Alexander Albon | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
Source: /feed/markets/v1 · dataVersion aggregate-2026 · live provider. Not live odds or wagering advice.
Intelligence Feed
Valuation & Agreement
Interpretation insights from the published Intelligence platform — whether KRS rates each driver's podium chances above or below the market, and how strongly the two agree. Confidence and magnitude are platform outputs; this page renders them without recomputation.
| Driver | Valuation | Magnitude | Agreement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAS | fair | +0.7% | agree | 0.41 |
| ALO | fair | +2.2% | agree | 0.43 |
| ALB | fair | +1.7% | agree | 0.42 |
| BOR | fair | +0.4% | agree | 0.40 |
| PER | fair | +1.0% | agree | 0.40 |
| LEC | overvalued | -6.3% | agree | 0.48 |
| OCO | fair | +1.3% | agree | 0.41 |
| NOR | undervalued | +7.0% | agree | 0.53 |
| ANT | overvalued | -12.2% | disagree | 0.50 |
| VER | fair | +2.3% | agree | 0.52 |
| COL | fair | +0.2% | agree | 0.39 |
| SAI | fair | +1.6% | agree | 0.43 |
| HUL | fair | +1.3% | agree | 0.42 |
| BOT | fair | +0.6% | agree | 0.39 |
| HAM | overvalued | -5.6% | agree | 0.52 |
| BEA | fair | +0.2% | agree | 0.40 |
| PIA | undervalued | +7.6% | agree | 0.52 |
| RUS | overvalued | -7.9% | agree | 0.53 |
| LIN | fair | +0.1% | agree | 0.38 |
| HAD | fair | +2.1% | agree | 0.47 |
| LAW | fair | +0.7% | agree | 0.42 |
| STR | fair | +0.9% | agree | 0.40 |
Source: /feed/intelligence/v1 · dataVersion intelligence-2026 · podiumChance vs market podium implied probability. Not wagering advice.
Archive
Historical Tracking
Post-event attribution records comparing projected finish positions against actual results. This data feeds the model-vs-actual calibration layer, informing future confidence scores.
| Event | Driver | Projected | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round 04 · Sample Circuit | M. Verstappen | P1 | P1 | 0 |
| Round 04 · Sample Circuit | L. Norris | P3 | P2 | +1 |
| Round 03 · Sample Circuit | C. Leclerc | P2 | P5 | −3 |
| Round 03 · Sample Circuit | O. Piastri | P5 | P3 | +2 |
| Round 02 · Sample Circuit | G. Russell | P6 | P6 | 0 |
| Round 02 · Sample Circuit | L. Hamilton | P8 | P7 | +1 |
Sample analytical comparison display only. Not live odds or wagering advice.
Concept
Closing Value Concepts
In market analytics, closing value refers to the final market price before an event resolves — often considered the most efficient price signal. KittySports tracks model projections against both opening and closing market lines to assess directional accuracy over time.
Opening vs Closing
Comparing the model projection against the opening line and the closing line provides two distinct signal quality measurements — early model accuracy and late-market efficiency.
Market Movement
Significant market movement between open and close may indicate sharp capital flows, new information, or public overreaction — all analytically meaningful signals for model calibration.
Convergence Tracking
When the model and market converge over time, it indicates either market efficiency improving or model signal being incorporated into broader pricing. Both are tracked.
Divergence Alerts
Persistent divergence between model and market outputs on specific drivers or circuit types surfaces model blind spots for targeted calibration improvement.
Calibration
Model-vs-Actual Tracking
Every KittySports prediction is an immutable record. After each event, actual results are logged against projections to build a longitudinal model accuracy dataset. This dataset drives confidence score calibration and factor weight tuning over time.
Prediction Records
Immutable
Every projection is stored with its full input snapshot for forensic review.
Attribution Cycle
Post-Event
Model accuracy is assessed after each event using canonical result data.
Calibration Layer
Ongoing
Factor weights evolve as model-vs-actual attribution data accumulates.