Prediction Records
Immutable
Every projection is stored with its full input snapshot for forensic review.
Market Comparison
KRS projections measured against market-implied probabilities. Observational analysis — not betting advice.
Markets Feed
Market Pricing
Implied probability, cross-source consensus, and best available price per outcome — rendered directly from the published Markets platform feed. No values are computed on this page.
market: race_winnerliquidity: 25.0overround: 13.0%dispersion: 0.0000
| Driver | Implied Prob. | Consensus | Best Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 6.2% | 7.0% | 14.29 | kalshi |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
| George Russell | 19.5% | 22.0% | 4.55 | kalshi |
| Oscar Piastri | 2.6% | 3.0% | 33.33 | kalshi |
| Sergio Perez | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
| Esteban Ocon | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
| Lando Norris | 2.6% | 3.0% | 33.33 | kalshi |
| Charles Leclerc | 10.6% | 12.0% | 8.33 | kalshi |
| Lewis Hamilton | 16.8% | 19.0% | 5.26 | kalshi |
| Isack Hadjar | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
| Valtteri Bottas | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 35.4% | 40.0% | 2.50 | kalshi |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
| Alexander Albon | 0.9% | 1.0% | 100.00 | kalshi |
Source: /feed/markets/v1 · dataVersion aggregate-2026 · live provider. Not live odds or wagering advice.
Intelligence Feed
Valuation & Agreement
Interpretation insights from the published Intelligence platform — whether KRS rates each driver's podium chances above or below the market, and how strongly the two agree. Confidence and magnitude are platform outputs; this page renders them without recomputation.
| Driver | Valuation | Magnitude | Agreement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAS | fair | -0.4% | agree | 0.58 |
| ALO | fair | +0.4% | agree | 0.49 |
| ALB | fair | +0.4% | agree | 0.49 |
| BOR | fair | -0.3% | agree | 0.58 |
| PER | fair | +0.3% | agree | 0.52 |
| LEC | fair | +0.9% | agree | 0.58 |
| OCO | fair | +0.4% | agree | 0.60 |
| NOR | undervalued | +12.5% | disagree | 0.54 |
| ANT | overvalued | -9.6% | agree | 0.63 |
| VER | undervalued | +4.3% | agree | 0.56 |
| COL | fair | -0.3% | agree | 0.58 |
| SAI | fair | -0.3% | agree | 0.58 |
| HUL | fair | +0.2% | agree | 0.54 |
| BOT | fair | +0.1% | agree | 0.47 |
| HAM | fair | -0.1% | agree | 0.60 |
| BEA | fair | -0.3% | agree | 0.56 |
| PIA | undervalued | +4.4% | agree | 0.56 |
| RUS | overvalued | -14.4% | disagree | 0.58 |
| LIN | fair | -0.2% | agree | 0.60 |
| HAD | fair | +1.9% | agree | 0.52 |
| LAW | fair | -0.4% | agree | 0.60 |
| STR | fair | +0.4% | agree | 0.36 |
Source: /feed/intelligence/v1 · dataVersion intelligence-2026 · podiumChance vs market podium implied probability. Not wagering advice.
Archive
Historical Tracking
Post-event attribution records comparing projected finish positions against actual results. This data feeds the model-vs-actual calibration layer, informing future confidence scores.
| Event | Driver | Projected | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round 04 · Sample Circuit | M. Verstappen | P1 | P1 | 0 |
| Round 04 · Sample Circuit | L. Norris | P3 | P2 | +1 |
| Round 03 · Sample Circuit | C. Leclerc | P2 | P5 | −3 |
| Round 03 · Sample Circuit | O. Piastri | P5 | P3 | +2 |
| Round 02 · Sample Circuit | G. Russell | P6 | P6 | 0 |
| Round 02 · Sample Circuit | L. Hamilton | P8 | P7 | +1 |
Sample analytical comparison display only. Not live odds or wagering advice.
Calibration
Model-vs-Actual Tracking
Every KittySports prediction is an immutable record. After each event, actual results are logged against projections to build a longitudinal model accuracy dataset. This dataset drives confidence score calibration and factor weight tuning over time.
Attribution Cycle
Post-Event
Model accuracy is assessed after each event using canonical result data.
Calibration Layer
Ongoing
Factor weights evolve as model-vs-actual attribution data accumulates.